A review of 2021 in Northern Ireland from Michael Bennett of the AltUlsters Project
(1) Brexit is hurting Northern Ireland
English nationalism has caused many problems for the people of Northern Ireland but the fallout from Brexit has become one of the biggest.
It is worth remembering that the people of Northern Ireland voted to remain part of the EU in 2016 — a fact that has often been ignored by the government in England (a theme I will return to later). It is also evident that, mindful of the benefits of trade with the South, most people in the North (reluctantly or otherwise) support the temporary arrangements known as ‘the Protocol.’
This fact is lost on many right-wing Unionist politicians who have chosen to make the Protocol a constitutional issue. The subsequent wrangling over trading and border issues has been a gift to sectarian nationalisms within Northern Ireland, with new divisions over Brexit feeding and reviving older senses of difference, destabilising cross-community engagements and putting the peace process itself in jeopardy.
The spring and summer of 2021 saw a revival of street violence, with attacks on the police and rioting (with a distinctive sectarian flavour) in many parts of Belfast. Instead of leading their constituents away from confrontation, Unionist leaders have sought to ride on this wave for short-term political gain. It is a risky strategy even for Unionism itself: recent opinion polls show the main unionist party (the DUP) has recovered some of the support it was losing earlier in 2021 but it remains well behind Sinn Fein in the polls.
This is probably because voters in Northern Ireland as a whole rank debates around the Protocol and constitutional issues well below those of health, recovery from the pandemic and the economy in importance. By making the fallout from Brexit an ideological issue, the British government and many politicians in Northern Ireland are (once again) ignoring the wishes and interests of the people they are supposed to represent.
(2) Hardline Unionists are stuck in panic mode
Opinion polls in early 2021 made bad reading for hardline Unionists in Northern Ireland — especially those from the largest party, the DUP.
As the year began, the DUP leader Arlene Foster was First Minister of Northern Ireland, presiding over a party that had received over 30% of votes at the 2019 Westminster election. When polls in January revealed that DUP support had slumped to just 19% and that the DUP were now trailing Sinn Fein by 5–6 percentage points, a sense of panic overwhelmed the party.
A group of DUP MPs and MLAs wrote a letter calling for Foster to resign. On April 28th the First Minister announced her resignation and the election for a new leader began. Support was split between the hardliner Edwin Poots and the ‘moderate’ Jeffrey Donaldson; in the end the former triumphed by a narrow majority of 19 to 17. Poots, however, lasted just 21 days in his new post. Party officers reacted against his support for the restoration of the Stormont Assembly and — perhaps mindful of a survey in the Belfast Telegraph that showed huge support for Donaldson among party members — forced Poots to resign and began a process of ‘coronation’ in which Donaldson was appointed leader at the end of June, becoming the fifth DUP leader in history but the third in just 50 days.
As leader Donaldson showed little of the ‘moderate’ side so trumpeted by supporters. He began his tenure by giving public backing to Loyalist youths building bonfires at community interface points, dismissing accusations of sectarian insensitivity. He then embarked on a long campaign to undermine the Protocol, announcing in September a boycott of north-south ministerial meetings as well as threatening to withdraw from Stormont if the party’s demands were not met. These threats continued to be made up to December and led to some commentators ridiculing the DUP leader as fast becoming ‘the boy who cried wolf.’
By the end of 2021 opinion polls in Northern Ireland suggested that this hardline stance had led to some recovery of the DUP vote share from an historic low of 16% in the summer to around 21% in November. But the party still trailed Sinn Fein by around 3% and was continuing to face pressure from both the genuinely moderate Alliance Party and other parties from the left and right of unionism.
With Donaldson unlikely to withdraw his support from the Assembly until he stands a chance of winning the resulting election, it appears that the people of Northern Ireland will have to face another 4 months of stalemate and frustration at least. And while Sinn Fein remains ahead in the polls, when the election does finally arrive you can be sure it will be dominated by the politics of sectarianism and fear rather than focusing on the issues that matter most to the electorate.
(3) Sinn Fein is (quietly) changing
At the same time as all the drama of the DUP leadership was taking place, another party was caught up in a struggle for power. In April, the entire leadership of the Derry Sinn Fein group — including two Derry MLAs, Karen Mullan and former IRA prisoner Martina Anderson — were asked to step down by a Sinn Fein committee investigating poor election results in the city.
Although the process ended relatively quickly and quietly, it was clear that the leadership in Dublin were sending a message to those in the party who continue to celebrate the military actions of republicans in the years before the ceasefire and peace process. For the ‘new Sinn Fein’ on the brink of taking power in the Republic, such perspectives are dangerously outdated and risk alienating their newer, younger supporters.
This message was hammered home by party leader Mary Lou McDonald. ‘I acknowledge that the process of reorganisation and change is challenging but it is my belief that our best days lie ahead in Derry and nationally as a new generation of republicans come forward,’ she said in April. Visiting the city in August, she went further: the party ‘needed a shake-up’ in Derry, she said.
Under the leadership of McDonald, there has been a quiet revolution in Sinn Fein. Aware that the younger Irish population has proved willing to challenge the old political and religious order in recent years, the party has consciously orientated itself towards ‘progressive’ politics. It is now talking as much about inequality, climate change and women’s and LGBTQ rights as it was previously about constitutional issues.
In addition, there has been a subtle but significant change of tone on the ‘armed struggle’ during the Troubles. In April, McDonald expressed regret at the killing of Lord Mountbatten by the IRA — a different stance than that taken by previous leader, Gerry Adams. At the party’s Ard Fheis (annual conference) in October much less emphasis was made on the ‘heroic struggles’ of the past and much more on 21st century problems (housing, health, women’s/LGBTQ rights and climate change).
At that Ard Fheis a significant decision was made to end the party’s long-standing objection to non-jury courts; a policy change which risked alienating older supporters, but which crucially allows a future Sinn Fein government to rule in coalition with one of the mainstream parties.
It is easy to be cynical about these shifts in tone and policy — as many critics of the party have been. These criticisms range from characterisations of a party willing to ditch everything in order to gain power to the rather hysterical denunciations of the British tabloids and the First Minister.
But other, less antagonistic observers are noticing a genuine change of path. . Jon Tonge (Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool) gave a cautious welcome to a party making peace with the political system. Writing for Slugger O’Toole, David McCann noted the emphasis upon policies that actually matter to voters at the Ard Fheis. The New Harvard Political Review has talked of a ‘New Sinn Fein’, moving from an anti-establishment protest party to one which ‘has reimagined itself into the first alternative vision for an Irish future that the country has seen since the War of Independence.’
It is undoubtedly true that McDonald is seeking to become the president of a party that heads the government both sides of the Irish border. Her ambition is clear, as is her calm but ruthless determination to achieve that goal. In 2021, McDonald has signalled the party’s change of direction and faced down criticism of it from all directions. In 2022 and beyond, Sinn Fein might well be in power in Northern Ireland. As McCann notes, that could mean much more influence over events on the island of Ireland ‘and should be a lesson for anyone who thinks that the party is better being on the outside rather than in the Executive.’
(4) Legacy issues remain unresolved
Later this month, there will be a series of events in Derry marking the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday — the unlawful killing of 14 unarmed civil rights protesters by soldiers from the British Army on January 30th, 1972.
Despite the fact that Bloody Sunday ruined many lives, it took over 26 years for the UK Government to properly investigate the killings and another 12 years passed before it apologised to the victims. Trials against soldiers identified as committing crimes on Bloody Sunday collapsed in 2021 and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the UK Government sees ‘legacy issues’ like these as something to avoid.
The ‘Troubles’ — the conflict in Northern Ireland between the mid-1960s and the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement of 1998 — caused many casualties.
It is estimated that around 3,500 people lost their lives and over 100,000 suffered some kind of injury, the vast majority within Northern Ireland itself. Here, it has been calculated that around 30% of the entire population were directly affected by the violence: through the loss of friends, family members, homes and businesses. Many more suffered from damage to physical and mental health.
The 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday comes in they year after the British Government announced plans to prohibit future prosecutions of military veterans and ex-paramilitaries for Troubles incidents pre-dating the Good Friday Agreement. This plan has been denounced by victims’ groups across Northern Ireland and has led to representatives from all communities expressing opposition and distrust in the motives of the British state.
Despite the fact that prosecutions relating to the actions of soldiers and policemen make up a smaller proportion than those against former paramilitaries, the British government has chosen to make political capital out of the issue. Ministers have stated — without any supporting evidence — that the cases against security forces are simply ‘vexatious prosecutions’ and designed to reward lawyers and litigants rather than deliver justice. This is part of a strategy by the current Tory administration to limit the power of judges to interfere (as they see it) in political decisions.
It is also part of a longer-established phenomenon: the inability of the British state to admit that crimes were committed by their agents during the administration of colonial territories, especially when so close to home as Northern Ireland.
In 2021, as in many previous years, lawyers for the British government and security forces have gone to extraordinary lengths to prevent their dirty secrets being exposed.
In December, the Police Service of Northern Ireland was challenged at the Supreme Court by the so-called ‘Hooded Men’: internees of 1971 who had been subjected to methods of interrogation that many now regard as torture. (These included being sleep-deprived, exposed to loud noise and even hooded and thrown from helicopters a short distance off the ground, having been told they were hundreds of feet in the air.) The PSNI had refused to investigate their case seven years previously; in fact, it was the PSNI who took the case to the highest court in Britain having failed in Belfast’s Court of Appeal to overturn an earlier High Court ruling that found it should complete an investigation into the treatment of the men. In its 2021 judgment the Supreme Court ruled once again that the PSNI had been in the wrong, describing the decision not to investigate as ‘irrational’. Despite this clear ruling, the PSNI has still shown no indication that it will comply (presumably hoping that the forthcoming UK legislation on Troubles-era crimes will remove their obligation to do so).
And it is this consciousness of a future legal block on seeking redress through the courts that led Steven Travers and other survivors of the Miami Showband Massacre to settle his civil suit against the Ministry of Defence out of court.
‘Our case proves that it is not easy to get into court,’ he said. ‘It took us 10 years to get them kicking and screaming into court. So all this [talk of vexatious prosecutions] is completely false.’
(5) British indifference makes things worse
During his tenure as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has used and abused Northern Ireland in his own interests. During the 2019 election campaign he sought to characterize the leader of the Labour opposition as a ‘terrorist sympathizer’, simply because Jeremy Corbyn had often questioned British policies in the province. His current stance on legacy issues is about preserving his position by offering a sop to right-wing backbenchers rather than concerns about justice.
But the attitude to legacy issues by the current British government should come as no surprise. Ireland, especially Northern Ireland, has always been little more than an afterthought in the minds of British politicians (and many of the British electorate too).
While many British politicians and journalists were singing the praises of the recently deceased Desmond Tutu, they mostly failed to appreciate the lesson the former anti-apartheid campaigner taught them about resolving conflict. The establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Africa was instrumental in bringing the country together after the end of apartheid. Tutu and other left-wing commentators suggested a similar approach to Northern Ireland during the Peace Process. But the suggestion was ignored and a valuable opportunity to bring reconciliation as well as peace lost.
As I have described earlier, the rise of English nationalism and the consequent obsession with Brexit has hurt Northern Ireland deeply. The significant number of people who voted to remain in the EU have simply been ignored by Westminster. The interests of businesses who benefitted from EU membership and are prospering under the Protocol are dismissed, as are the thousands who rely on regular border crossings for work and family life.
In fact, it could be argued that the objections to the Protocol are also hurting British business. US negotiators have made it clear that the delay in signing a US-UK trade deal is down to US reluctance to risk the Good Friday Agreement by allowing the Protocol to go. The continued uncertainty caused by the constant renegotiations in Brussels is affecting British people and the economy; it seems likely that EU impatience with British right-wing posturing could mean the whole deal may need to be renegotiated with all the problems that further delays will cause.
Worst of all, the alliance of hardline Unionism with right-wing English nationalism has encouraged a hardening of attitudes and the development of a siege mentality by some Northern Unionists. This has led to a renewed obsession with constitutional issues (rather than the actual concerns of voters) and the likelihood that the next Stormont election will be dominated by scaremongering and sectarianism rather than proposals to improve people’s lives.
The willful ignorance and dismissal of Northern Irish concerns comes with a long history and a terrible set of costs.
(6) 2022 could be a momentous year
A lot happened in 2021: new leaders for 2 of the main parties; renewed street violence and angst over the Protocol; dismay at the policies coming from Britain.
But all this could pale into insignificance if the opinion polls are correct, and Sinn Fein becomes the biggest party at Stormont after elections scheduled for this May.
Since the formation of Northern Ireland in 1921, a non-unionist party has never been the largest party in terms of votes cast in Stormont elections. Sinn Fein never even contested elections until the 1980s and only took an active role in Northern Ireland’s government after the Good Friday Agreement created a power-sharing format for the Assembly in 1998.
Within the last few years, however, the party has maintained an impressive 20–25% vote share due in part to demographic changes which have increased the non-Protestant population, partly to being seen as a party of government rather than a protest group, partly to altered campaigning styles and issues raised, and partly to the growth of parties like Alliance which have attracted disillusioned unionist voters in significant numbers.
This year, then, Sinn Fein is poised to take a senior role at Stormont for the very first time. Clearly buoyed by a strong election result in the Republic the party has become confident of imminent success both sides of the border. (It is noticeable that it has stopped talking of ‘if’ unification happens but rather ‘when’.) 2022 could be the start of a ‘decade of opportunity’ for Irish republicanism.
But, of course, its not that simple.
Unionists are clearly spooked at the current state of the opinion polls and the DUP is attempting to form an electoral pact with other unionist parties to prevent a Sinn Fein victory. It has not been successful in this so far, but as the election approaches and the prospect of a Sinn Fein victory becomes more real it would not be surprising if some informal arrangements were made.
In addition, the DUP has already started to make threats of non-compliance, suggesting it would not nominate a Deputy if Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill was to become First Minister (and thus bring the Stormont Assembly down). As the DUP have many friends at Westminster and Sinn Fein do not, it would be interesting to see what the British government would do in such a situation. Prime Minister Johnson is currently being held hostage by around 80 right-wing members of his Conservative party, few of whom would want to see a republican-led government in Northern Ireland.
But, as Suzanne Breen recently argued on BBC Radio Ulster, if Sinn Fein were to counter such a negative campaign from unionists with a positive campaign, emphasizing the progressive nature of having a first female leader, as well as being a party willing to speak up for young people and focus on 21st century issues (as Alliance has successfully positioned itself in recent debates) then it might be able to counteract the fearmongering and almost certain sectarianism of hardline unionism with a vision of Northern Ireland that the majority of voters are willing to embrace (however reluctantly).
Whatever happens, 2022 is going to be a fascinating time to be alive in Northern Ireland, that’s for sure.
